Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
