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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still